Author: Arezki Daoud

Nigeria risk assessment: week ending June 11, 2017

For the period of 5 to 11 June 2017, there were 65 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in 60 deaths and 23 arrests. Incidents of domestic politics took the lead, accounting for 21.5% of the total incident pool, with new tension emerging between the north and the south, and as the Biafra movement also continues to make headlines.  Economic-related incidents also accounted for over 21% of the combined set of incidents recorded during the week, further highlighting the country’s economic weaknesses and challenges. ¨ On the political front, we note the emergence of a new threat in an escalating rift...

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Pipeline attacks in Nigeria resume, with militants hinting on more to come

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) reported this week a gas pipeline exploded, that took place on Saturday 20 May 2017 in southeastern Nigeria. The region, known as the Niger Delta, was the target of several pipeline attacks by armed groups who define themselves as militants fighting for the rights of the local populations. A spokesman of the national oil company NNPC said the attack was an act of sabotage. The explosion, the first recorded  in months, occurred near Sanomi, in the vicinity of Warri, capital of Delta State. “In the photos of the incident, it is clear that...

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Egypt’s tough balancing act: the hard task of ensuring social peace while delivering economic growth

Egyptian households are bracing of an extremely costly Ramadan season. Ramadan will start at the end of May, and will last a month, in a period that promises to see another spike in food prices unless government controls are effectively implemented.  As the Egyptians prepare to perform their religious duty, stress has been growing day-by-day as the value of the national currency collapses, and as food and commodity prices skyrocket (see chart below).  The situation is so drastic that while the IMF is putting pressure on Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi to abandon subsidies, which he promised as part of...

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Nigeria: Despite risk, NNPC to resume oil exploration in restive Borno state

A senior executive of the Nigerian state-owned oil company Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said his company is on the verge of resuming oil exploration in the restive northeastern state of Borno. The company beleives the level of security has improved to justify a return to Borno, but there has been evidence that this part of Nigeria remains a major risk due to the active presence of Boko Haram. Alhaji Maikanti Baru, the Managing Director of NNPC, Alhaji Maikanti Baru says exploration in Lake Chad will begin over the next six months as a result of “military assurance of...

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Morocco remains a moderate risk country, seeks to contain militant groups

Morocco faces a moderate level of security risk, placing it as an intermediate risk country. Indeed the Kingdom faces several risk sources but it has managed, thus far, to successfully control them.  From October 25 to November 24, Morocco’s MEA Risk Index was 1.44, positioning it on the low-end of the moderate risk range, near the low-risk zone.  This rating indicates a likelihood of moderate stability for those seeking to invest or operate in the country, but they also must remain vigilant and insure that proper security measures are adopted in case of any negative development. For the period...

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